Known for devising the bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model, an indicator that is also used as a reference for other assets such as gold and precious metals, based on flow and scarcity, Plan B prefers to keep his true identity anonymous.
According to Plan B himself, the pseudonym refers to the idea of an alternative plan to fiat money, issued by central banks, “that brings negative interest rates and devaluation of currencies”. On his page, PlanB@100trillionUSD, he further explains that the US$ 100 trillion is a reference to Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation in 2008, which went as far as issuing 100 trillion Zimbabwe dollar notes.
On the same page, he still claims to be a Dutch institutional investor with 25 years of experience in financial markets, especially in legal and quantitative finance, and “fascinated by risk and return modeling”.
What is stock-to-flow?
The model was already traditionally used in commodity markets to calculate the price based on the flow of supply. But in March 2019, Plan B adapted it for bitcoin, combining on-chain indicators and the formula to establish the minimum price of the asset over time.
Thus, the Stock-to-Flow model for BTC uses the principle of scarcity to quantify the value of the cryptoasset. A year later, Plan B introduced the Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset (S2FX) model, including other assets that are also scarce, such as gold, silver, diamond, and real estate.
Regarding commodities, the indicator measures the current supply, divided by annual production. Similarly, bitcoin is a scarce digital asset. Therefore, with each halving, which occurs every 210,000 blocks mined, the issuance of new coins is cut in half.
In addition, BTC has limited emission – set at 21 million units, of which about 19 million have already been mined, which makes it close to its limit.
Based on this reasoning, Plan B eventually became known for the more consistent bitcoin pricing predictions.
YouTube took Plan B’s interview offline
In an interview on trader and analyst Anthony Pompiliano’s channel in October, Plan B stated that the top of the current bullish cycle should occur between March and April 2022, taking bitcoin up to US$ 288,000.
However, shortly after the (live) interview, YouTube took Pompiliano’s channel offline, claiming “violation of the platform’s security policies”, according to CoinTelegraph. The move sparked controversy, and a few hours later, the video went back online – now titled “Interview on bitcoin that YouTube tried to delete”.
