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Navigating the ripples of the bitcoin market is complex, especially in recent months, when the crypto asset’s value fell nearly 13% in a single day. Hence, the bitcoin “bear market” was the subject of analysis by experts at Rio Crypto Day. During the event, analysts and experts exchanged information on how to find opportunities amid the falling value of BTC, without panicking.

Navigating the market is already complicated, but guess how hard it is for those who have just started investing. Orlando Telles, partner-investor at Mercurius Crypto, presented data that creates a new filter for the crypto segment: half of the people who are investing in crypto in Brazil started last year. “It’s an interesting phenomenon; usually every three years, we see the cycle of the price and entry into the bitcoin market renewing itself. The price rise draws people’s attention, and they start watching about crypto in the media, and it turns into a cycle”, commented Telles.

“It is easy to invest in the euphoria of the moment. However, there is more fear of investing in bitcoin when it is at US$ 28,000 than when it is at US$ 50,000”,  commented Financial Move founder Tasso Lago during Rio Crypto Day. According to him, some sentiments rule the market: from boredom to euphoria, through panic and confidence. And all of them influence when there are sudden changes in the asset pricing.

The rule that works in the stock market also governs the crypto assets: buying on the downtrend is good business. Experts had pointed to the “whales” movement,  the big investors in BTC, who accelerated their buying when the value went below US$30,000.

Don’t fear the bear!

The first step in not missing the bear market opportunity is looking for the patterns. Bitcoin has already had five bear markets; the first was in 2011 when it fell 94%. explained Diego Velasques, creator of Vale Trader. “All these falls have one point in common: the high price base”, Velasques pointed out. The trader and crypto expert said that the crypto asset has been in a macro uptrend since it started trading and that these price shocks are common to adjust the base.

According to Lago, this is the best time to “set up bitcoin hold position”.

“Bitcoin has never broken below the US$20,000 mark (after having passed that threshold)”, the executive said. For Velasques, there is a chance it will go up quite a bit in the next “turn” of the market. “In the penultimate wave, it was a 12.3% rise, yet in the last one, it was 2,000%. What will be the valuation of the next one?”, questioned Velasques.

“We were programmed to invest only in what is appreciating, and we have a certain fear when you think there is going to be a big drop, of getting to zero”, Velasques commented. In Léo Jaguaribe’s opinion, to be a bitcoin holder is to be a “survivor”, since it is necessary to have techniques to avoid being carried away by the market panic.

No euphoria either

According to the creator of Vamos para Bolsa, Rodolfo Marques, looking at the asset’s background already shows there is opportunity. “BTC was, by far, the best asset of the last decade. The annualized return was 197% on average”, said Marques. For him, market volatility is temporary and should not change bitcoin’s profile in the long term.

The indicator that Velasques relies on is the one that shows the evolution of BTC compared to Nasdaq papers. “You can see the difference from the traditional market to the bitcoin market, and from there, it should be seen if money is flowing from the Wall Street market to the crypto world”, the expert commented. For him, you also need to keep an eye on the sales volume and who is throwing the dice.

“Panic and euphoria are the most profitable sentiments in the market”, Velasques concluded. And only education provides security for the investor not to settle into either one.